No one can see into the future (although some claim to possess this gift). However, Jim Lentz, Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Toyota and Frank Klegon, Executive Vice President of Product Development for Chrysler had their automotive crystal balls out recently. Each shared their opinions on what direction they feel the automotive industry will be going in.
Lentz stated that due to the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has proposed, vehicle sale prices are destined to rise. The new CAFE standards require that passenger vehicles (cars and light trucks together) achieve 35 mpg by the year 2018. The current standards allow for cars and trucks to be calculated separately – 27.5 mpg for cars and 22.5 mpg for vans and light trucks. This new regulation may not sound too far fetched when looking at the current numbers, however it’s been reported that the highest average ever achieved by both cars and light trucks together was only 26.2. And that happened in 1987. In 2004, the average was 24.6 mpg, not because efficiency of vehicles declined, but because consumers were buying more trucks.
Klegon commented that in order for auto manufacturers to meet these goals, trucks would need to average anywhere from 25-30 mpg, which leaves “only” 75 miles per gallon worth of slack for cars to make up.
I know the window sticker on your Prius stated that it will get up to 60 mpg, but have any of you really achieved that sort of efficiency?
Due to inflation, vehicle prices typically rise. But according to Lentz, some unavoidable design changes that will need to occur in order to meet such regulations, such as the use of lighter materials in conjunction with the development of more efficient engines, will probably spawn substantially greater price increases than consumers are used to. He also remarked that consumer choices would need to be limited, eliminating full-size trucks like the Chevy Suburban/Tahoe or Mercedes GL, as well as sports cars similar to the Ford Mustang and Audi R8.
On a different note, Lentz also mentioned that the automotive industry is well aware of the generational change that is occurring amongst drivers. With Americans driving well up to the age of 90 years old (I’ll probably question that one until I’m 89), this is the first time that there are 5 generations of drivers on the road at one time. Because of this, automakers are beginning to look at design issues differently. For example, the sizes of dials/gauges and the sound levels of clickers are now being taken into consideration.
Obviously, for automakers, the future is now. Heck, two years ago, even. And many changes need to be made to ensure that it is a bright one. It is good that both automakers and the NHTSA are talking about solutions around their own proverbial dinner tables. Let’s hope that they schedule a dinner date together soon to devise realistic goals and standards that not only can be met, but that future drivers can live with.
October 8, 2007 at 7:02 pm
I think its a big problem that Congress is pushing for these standards without the consumer demand behind it to back it up. If consumers wanted smaller cars that were more fuel efficient over heavier trucks, SUVs, etc – then I’m sure the industry would be making them. I do some work with the AAM and the industry has gotten behind a raise in CAFE standards, but one that keeps cars and trucks in separate categories and one that is more in line with meeting consumer demands. Washington really needs to realize that if Americans want to keep driving trucks it doesn’t matter how much they raise regulations.
April 30, 2008 at 11:20 am
The mustang will always be enjoyed despite its MPG. Cannot measure excitement on a sticker tag.